Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Strain-wave gears & RV reducersII · Ball screws, linear guides & bearingsIII · Frameless motors & integrated actuatorsIV · Rare-earth magnets & motor materialsV · Force-torque, tactile & vision sensingVI · Robot brains & edge AI computeVII · Batteries & power densityVIII · Robot platforms & integratorsIX · Simulation, training & robot softwareX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
July 2026
- 30mediumEarningsMPMP Materials Q2 2026 earningsFirst read on NdFeB magnet ramp and mid-2026 Mountain Pass Dy/Tb commissioning — the heavy-RE step that gates motor-grade magnet output for humanoid joints.
August 2026
- 10mediumEarningsUSARUSA Rare Earth Q2 2026 earningsTests the Stillwater sintered-NdFeB ramp toward 600 t/yr and progress on the Serra Verde heavy-RE acquisition that would secure Dy/Tb feed for compliant magnets.
November 2026
- 10highPolicyChina's one-year suspension of October 2025 rare-earth export controls expiresIf the extraterritorial magnet/heavy-RE controls snap back, every humanoid program relying on ~90% Chinese NdFeB faces licensing risk, repricing scarce ex-China supply.
January 2027
- 01highPolicyDFARS 252.225-7052 ban on Chinese-melted/fabricated NdFeB and SmCo magnets in defense systems takes effectFrom Jan 1, 2027, DFARS 252.225-7052 bars DoD from acquiring NdFeB/SmCo magnets melted or subsequently fabricated in China — tightening demand for ex-China magnet supply (MP, USA Rare Earth). The rule targets the melt-and-downstream steps, not all Chinese content.