A public research surface · updated continuously
The humanoid race will be won by whoever owns the chokepoints.
Strain-wave gears, RV reducers, ball screws, frameless motors, force-torque sensing, rare-earth magnets. Robot Bottlenecks maps the physical supply chain behind every humanoid and cobot — and the listed companies that own each choke. Own the strait, not the tanker.
50 names tracked · 10 chokepoints · free, no login
The chokepoints
I
Strain-wave gears & RV reducers
Every robot joint routes torque through a precision reducer — and two Japanese companies own the global installed base.
NCTKY · HSYDF · TKR · SOHVY
II
Ball screws, linear guides & bearings
Smooth linear motion is a metallurgy-and-grinding art owned by a handful of Japanese precision houses.
SFFLY · THKLY · NPSKY · TKR · RBC · GSA
III
Frameless motors & integrated actuators
Humanoids need dozens of compact high-torque-density actuators; the merchant motor bench is thin and the leaders are vertically integrating.
RRX · ALNT · MOG.A · NJDCY · HSYDF · TSLA
IV
Rare-earth magnets & motor materials
Every actuator is wound around NdFeB magnets — a China-controlled input the humanoid ramp multiplies by 40+ joints per robot.
MP · USAR · LYSCF · UUUU · NOVEON
V
Force-torque, tactile & vision sensing
Manipulation lives or dies on force and touch sensing; the merchant suppliers are few and mostly buried inside diversified names.
NOVT · TEL · ALGM · CGNX · STM · TSLA
VI
Robot brains & edge AI compute
A humanoid is a robot wrapped around an AI computer; the perception-and-policy silicon comes from one dominant vendor and a thin second tier.
NVDA · QCOM · AMBA · LSCC · KOID · FIGURE
VII
Batteries & power density
A humanoid shift is a battery problem: kWh-class packs, high discharge rates, and NDAA-clean supply for defense-adjacent buyers.
AMPX · ENVX · ULBI · ENS
VIII
Robot platforms & integrators
The visible layer: listed robot makers and integrators racing deployment numbers — tier by robots actually shipped and dollars actually booked.
SYM · TER · FANUY · YASKY · SERV · KSCP
IX
Simulation, training & robot software
Robots are trained in simulation before they ship; the sim-to-real toolchain concentrates in a few platforms.
NVDA · PTC · SNPS · U
X
Private giants & exposure vehicles
Figure, Boston Dynamics, Agility, 1X, Apptronik — the humanoid cap tables without tickers, and the listed paths into them.
005380.KS · ARKVX · HSYDF · NCTKY · NJDCY · GOOGL · NVDA · HUMN · FIGURE · BOSTONDYNAMICS · APPTRONIK · AGILITYROBOTICS
Latest brief · 2026-09-11
The rare-earth magnet chokepoint led robotics lower on U.S.–China thaw hopes, while the design-tools layer held a narrow gain.
Robotics traded with the risk-off tape, and the losses concentrated on the layer the whole vertical is most exposed to: rare-earth magnets. Energy Fuels (UUUU) fell 6.3% to $13.63, the basket's steepest decline, alongside USA Rare Earth (USAR) −6.0% to $16.04 and MP Materials (MP) −5.5% to $51.32. The driver was diplomatic — the rare-earth complex repriced lower on renewed U.S.–China thaw hopes, which shrink the scarcity premium on the NdFeB magnets that sit inside every servo, joint, and actuator. It is the actuator-magnet chokepoint doing the work: cheaper political risk on Chinese supply means a lower multiple on the Western sources, regardless of unchanged demand from the humanoid roadmap.
The lone green worth naming was the design chokepoint. Synopsys (SNPS) rose 1.0% to $397.17 — the EDA-and-simulation layer that every robot's silicon and, increasingly, its physical-AI models are validated on, and the least capital-intensive rung of the stack on a session that punished duration. Alphabet (GOOGL) added 0.6%. The Japanese motion-control names — Nabtesco, NSK, Harmonic Drive — traded firmer on their own home session, though their thin U.S. lines are not a clean read.
Everything with a distant payoff fell. The macro was unforgiving — a fourth straight down day, WTI above $100, and roughly a 73% chance of a rate hike priced for next week. Serve Robotics (SERV) dropped 5.0% to $4.42, Symbotic (SYM) −3.6% to $41.10, Teradyne (TER) −3.5% to $370.19, and Tesla (TSLA) −1.2% to $363.56. The read across the vertical was consistent: the market cut the pre-revenue, capital-hungry names and the materials premium in the same motion, sparing only the toolchain.
The catalyst path keeps the magnet strait front and center. China's one-year suspension of its October 2025 rare-earth export controls expires November 10 — the date that decides whether today's thaw trade was early — and the DFARS ban on Chinese-melted or -fabricated NdFeB and SmCo magnets takes effect January 1, 2027, the policy that gives the Western sources their floor. On the demand side, NVIDIA's Isaac GR00T reference humanoid is due to ship from Unitree late this year, RoboBusiness runs Oct 19–21 in Santa Clara, and the analyst-estimated Boston Dynamics IPO decision window opens in December.