Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Strain-wave gears & RV reducersII · Ball screws, linear guides & bearingsIII · Frameless motors & integrated actuatorsIV · Rare-earth magnets & motor materialsV · Force-torque, tactile & vision sensingVI · Robot brains & edge AI computeVII · Batteries & power densityVIII · Robot platforms & integratorsIX · Simulation, training & robot softwareX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
July 2026
- 31mediumEarningsNCTKYNabtesco H1 FY2026/12 resultsFirst read on whether RV-reducer capacity doubling is being absorbed by humanoid/industrial-robot demand or sitting idle as utilization.
August 2026
- 06mediumEarningsHSYDFHarmonic Drive Systems Q1 FY3/27 resultsTests whether U.S. humanoid prototype-production orders are converting toward the 10B yen mid-term target — the core repricing variable for the strain-wave monopoly.
- 31mediumProgramTesla Optimus V3 reveal and Fremont production start (targeted summer 2026)Tesla's next-gen Optimus (V3) reveal and the start of low-volume Fremont production are targeted for 2026 — the single biggest demand catalyst for the humanoid component chain — but Tesla has not confirmed a date, so this is a placeholder.
October 2026
- 30mediumEarningsTKRTimken Q3 2026 resultsWatch for any disclosed Cone Drive humanoid-gear bookings that would upgrade Timken from diluted exposure toward a named merchant supplier into actual robot programs.